They may seem like small fry but they make our world go around. Whether in Tesla cars, toasters or tumble dryers, computer chips are so integral to our daily lives that, without them, our world would grind to a halt.
So it’s a worry as the world gears up for a faster recovery that global demand for semiconductor chips is outstripping supply. It could be symptomatic of a more widespread global supply-side shortage of key production goods, which might lead to increased prices and higher inflation.
The OECD reports that inflation in the major economies rose to 2.4 per cent in March. Inflation is coming back, but it’s not the bogeyman that markets need to fear. Higher prices are a sign of economic vitality, of which the world has been in short supply since the Covid-19 crisis began.
The pandemic may be far from over, but the combination of stronger recovery and inflation shows the global economy is returning to some semblance of normality.
It’s not purely the pandemic which is to blame, although production dislocations due to lockdowns and factory shutdowns certainly haven’t helped. As companies around the world slashed production during the early phase of the coronavirus crisis last year, semiconductor manufacturers were forced to scale back output as well.
Now, chip producers are playing catch-up, trying to keep pace with the surge in global demand for semiconductors as world economic activity bounces back.
With the International Monetary Fund projecting that global growth will accelerate to 6 per cent this year after a 3.3 per cent contraction in 2020, it’s no surprise that the world semiconductor industry is facing volatile demand conditions, which could cause bottlenecks for key industries like carmakers, with their high consumption of chip components.
Last week, German semiconductor manufacturer Infineon, a major supplier to carmakers, warned that up to 2.5 million cars might not be produced in the first half of 2021 due to ongoing supply chain shortages. With market conditions booming for autos and consumer electronics after such a long period of pent-up demand, chip producers are being forced to step up production, but it will take time to reach optimal capacity.
The Semiconductor Industry Association reports that, worldwide, sales rose 3.6 per cent during the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 17.8 per cent over the past 12 months. Although chip output is being cranked up, companies like Ford are still warning that car production will be affected in some plants until the shortage is resolved.
In the meantime, fine-tuning the balance between recovery and rising inflation expectations could prove challenging. There may be some short-term price distortions but global policymakers still need to err on the side of caution and keep monetary policy as loose as possible until the world fully recovers from the pandemic and sustainable growth is secured.
It wasn’t too long ago that policymakers were complaining that inflation was too low and that the global economy was in danger of slipping back into deflation, so the temptation to jump the gun and rush back into tightening should be avoided at all costs.
As yet, there are no signs of either demand-pull or cost-push inflation surfacing. Global growth is bouncing back, but it is happening from an extremely weak, non-inflationary base.
Right now, global recovery needs nurturing, not cutting off in its prime. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is quite correct to give stronger growth the benefit of the doubt until there is a much more convincing case for higher rates. Global output gaps are still extremely negative, industrial capacity levels are slack and wage pressures remain low, given the fallout from the pandemic. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates the global economy might currently be operating as much as 5.2 per cent below potential output levels, suggesting little or no inflation danger this year.
China’s producer prices may have surged 4.4 per cent year on year in March, but inflation risks remain benign with the headline consumer price index extremely low, at 0.4 per cent. Base effects mean that the headline inflation rate will pick up in the coming months, but Beijing can afford to stay relaxed for now.
Until the Fed signals that the time is ripe for tightening, the world can rest easy. No interest rate hikes in 2021 should be the equity market’s rallying cry.
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A gavel, a gong, a bell; the three symbols of a fresh day of trading at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Although the tool itself has changed over the years, the act of the ‘opening bell’ has been solidified across public trading houses - even though Nasdaq doesn’t have a physical trading floor, the house still has an opening bell ceremony each day. That’s how strong it is.
However, more companies, with some high-profile examples within gaming, are pulling away from this iconic morning routine and instead favoring the quiet life of private equity.
But why are companies going private?
There are a few reasons why some big gambling companies are going private.
First of all, when a company goes public, there is a far greater level of administration and bureaucracy. A private company therefore has more control over its business, without having to please multiple shareholders.
Once a company goes private, the business is in the hands of a few select people; either the private equity firm or the family controlling the company. This makes it infinitely easier to make decisions and act on them.
There’s also less volatility from being on the publicly traded stock market, too. The stock market has quite infamous ups and downs, but unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past five years, you’ve probably noticed some global events that affected the economy quite severely.
If anything, this proves that there’s no set path to success for companies; going public is no longer a symbol of ‘making it’ but should instead be analysed as a viable strategy, rather than the only strategy
One of the biggest positives of being publicly traded, however, is access to capital. It used to be one of the only ways companies could get funding for projects, which is why going public was historically seen as the end goal for many businesses in the past.
But this isn’t the case anymore. Even as far back as 2018, IPOs brought in $50.3bn in the tech sector, while private equity firms invested $130.9bn.
Some companies never went public in the first place.
Once a company goes private, the business is in the hands of a few select people; either the private equity firm or the family controlling the company. This makes it infinitely easier to make decisions and act on them. The biggest example in gambling is bet365, which has been private since it launched in 2000, owned and operated by the Coates family. On the supplier side, Interblock is a huge firm one would assume is NYSE-listed but has remained private, in 2022 being acquired by (you guessed it, private equity) funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management.
So perhaps we’ll see a new era of company ownership going forward, where gaming companies won’t be afraid to rely on private equity, rather than face the public eye on the stock market. Is it time for more casino and sports betting companies to take a gamble on their products and boot out the shareholders and their opinions for good?
A report conducted by YieldSec and commissioned by the Campaign for Fairer Gambling (CFG) suggests the illegal sports betting and online casino markets are far outpacing the legal betting market.
The report says 103 legal operators (both online casino and sports betting apps) target U.S. customers, while there are 860 illegal operators targeting U.S. customers. The report says those illegal operators generated $40.9 billion in gross gaming revenue in 2023 compared to $16.9 billion for legal operators.
The report even estimates the amount wagered on the 2024 Super Bowl via illegal operators was $500 million more than the amount wagered through illegal operators in 2023.
“The black market is alive and well in America. Legalizing iGambling was never going to adequately weaken the illegals,” CFG founder Derek Webb said in a press release. “But the presence of the black market has served as a useful foil — the legal gambling sector’s main rationalization for expansion.”
“Substitution from illegals to legals is simply not happening at the pace it should – illegals are used as brands of choice and convenience, with some substitution to legals for offers and account opening incentives, when available, as with the Super Bowl,” the report concludes.
In this week of reflection, we bring you again some capsules, which regardless of your creed, have small messages that we hope you will take advantage of to improve your life and your relationship with your environment and your peers; Let's take these days to put our ideas in order and move forward in this enormous challenge of being better people and being happy.
Be aware that the arrogant ego loves to change others, control them, manipulate, and submit.
That ego is the self without love and without God, proud, denied humility and, therefore, prisoner. It is impossible to love without humility because the proud do not understand, do not listen, do not dialogue, and offend.
He does not forgive or ask for forgiveness, he dominates, subdues, despises and believes he is right.
A wise man said: “All evils spring from pride, which is lack of love, and good things come with humility.”
Ego it means “I” in Latin and there are three kinds of egos:
1. Loving ego, listen to it and follow it.
2. Proud ego, give it many doses of humility, but it is not bad. Nothing is.
3. Defective ego, it focuses only on the negative and you must give it self-love and security.
Author: Gonzalo Gallo He is a Colombian writer and former priest. He was born in Medellín, Antioquia. Gallo belonged to the Discalced Carmelites community. Gallo spent 22 of his 24 years of priesthood in the city of Cali, where he became popular among other things for his massive masses in the city's Eucharistic Temple1, in addition to his style, humor and social works. “I cultivate several hobbies because I see that the more lights you turn on in your life, the less shadows bring down your spirits. I feel that in my spirituality I feel like a lover and admirer of Jesus and Buddha, without being in a religion.”
Pop singer Bruno Mars has been in the spotlight recently for reportedly racking up $50 million in gambling debts at the casino he’s been performing at — though MGM Resorts said in a statement to MarketWatch on Thursday that this speculation is “completely false,” and that Mars “has no debt with MGM.”
One Grammy-winning artist aside, gambling poses serious financial challenges to millions of Americans, both at in-person casinos and online.
About 2.5 million adults in the U.S. are estimated to have a severe gambling problem, while another 5 million to 8 million have mild or moderate gambling problems, according to the nonprofit National Council on Problem Gambling. It impacts regular consumers and celebrities alike, with golf star Phil Mickelson recently opening up about his gambling addiction on Instagram. Mars has said he played cards to make money before his music career
Sports gambling has grown significantly in recent years amid a wave of legalization across the country that has made it easier for people to place bets on their phones. Americans legally wagered $119.84 billion on sports in 2023, up 27.8% from the previous year, according to the American Gaming Association. Since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, it’s been up to individual states to legalize sports betting, and it’s now legal in 38 states plus Washington, D.C.
Some people who can’t control their gambling problem have gambling disorder, a diagnosable condition that’s associated with a higher rate of suicide.
Gambling’s financial impact can be severe: The average debt generated by men with a gambling problem ranges from $55,000 to $90,000, while for women it’s $15,000, according to Debt.org, an informational website about debt maintained by the nonprofit InCharge Education Foundation. Many withdraw cash advances on their personal lines of credit and rack up expenses on their credit cards to gamble.
Some people also borrow money, called a casino marker, from casinos by filling out an application on-site; legally, this is handled differently from a short-term loan.
According to online materials from Las Vegas attorney Joel Mann, “Under Nevada law, casino markers are not considered a loan. Rather, they are like a check that you have written to the casino. If you do not have the money in the bank to cover a marker when it comes due, you can face serious criminal charges.”
Some people who can’t control their gambling problem have gambling disorder, a diagnosable condition that’s associated with a higher rate of suicide.
The recent online-offline casino cannibalisation debate that took place (albeit by proxy) between Deutsche Bank and Eilers & Krejcik (EKG) in the US was an illustration of how important the topic is to discussions around online casino regulation and is just as relevant to French and wider European developments on the issue.
The report was carried out by EKG on behalf of the US online gambling trade body iDEA Growth and surveyed “how the legalization of online casino gambling affects land-based casinos” in the US. It found that online players tended to be younger than their offline counterparts, but operators that have both online and offline offerings “have not observed cannibalization”.
The Before-&-After
Comparing the growth rate of land-based casino before and after Online Casino was introduced, the report found that “in all six states (where online is regulated in the US), land-based casino revenue was positively impacted by the introduction of online casinos”.
In France, the potential cannibalisation of land-based casinos by digital casino portals is a key issue in the debates around online casino regulation. Debating the topic in the French parliament in Feb23, the gambling regulator Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) said land-based casinos would suffer a 30% hit to their revenues in the event of online regulation.
In the US, the regulatory set up in the leading online casino states of New Jersey, Michigan or Pennsylvania requires online operators to partner with offline casinos. That system also applies in Europe in countries such as Belgium and Switzerland.
In reference to the EKG report, the DB team commented that while some observers “appear to (be) doing mathematical acrobatics to arrive at a certain conclusion, we believe the data speaks for itself”… “While it may not be what some want to hear,” the analysts added, “in one paragraph and one chart, we have shown, for some time, and show here again, that iCasino is in fact having an impact on B&M casinos.”
DB added the “underperformance” of land-based casinos in New Jersey, Philadelphia and Michigan, the three states “that actually matter” as they “generate >90% of 2023 iCasino GGR, is so clear that we struggle to see how, but not necessarily why, one could reach a different conclusion”.
In the past year and relative to 2019, the performance of B&M casinos in iCasino states is +0.6% compared with +11.7% for B&M-only states. The issue also fits into broader debates around whether (poorly-drafted) regulations push players towards illegal operators.
Without doubt it will reappear in France in the coming months and observers will also note issues like the different age groups that online and offline casinos attract. And with PMU joining AFJEL this week, stakeholders will be gearing up for some serious discussions on all these topics.
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